http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/13dec_globaleruption/

There’s something in Classical Studies about climate change—remember, we’re the guys [in my old academic field] that deal with the oldest written accounts and oldest civilized remains in the world. And somebody noted something interesting back before the 1970’s…

The rhythm of civilization is on a 500 year cycle. Every 500 years, the barbarians ride out of the steppes and trash the farmers in the Tigris-Euphrates; dynasties fall; famine hits the Tarim Basin; the Gauls (later in history) invade Rome (then move on to Asia Minor). Ie, every 500 years, the apple cart upsets and things rattle for a while.

Some enterprising folk have wondered if our Sol is a periodic star, with a 500 year cycle. So I always told my history students to look out for the year 2000, that there might be climate glitches, famines (crop failure), or weather upheaval. What went on in history was a drought in the Tarim, forcing horse-using barbarians to move on, which nudged the next guys over, and they nudged the next: it was dominos, all along the trade routes and migration routes. People who’d matured into a power would try to go south to get food around the Med (or north, from Africa) and weaker civilizations would go down. When Rome ruled, they did what any selfrespecting global civilization would do, and used their ships to move grain from regions of plenty to regions of famine and kept civilization together in that one; but come 500 AD, they blew it, got caught in a period of disorganization; 1000 AD, give or take a century, you’ve got the Vikings and the Normans, not to mention chaos in Asia; 1500—heck, explorers were out in ships, and TRADE was big because there were areas where they really wanted goods like food…etc.

Just some food for thought.