This is an unusual event: when meteorologists say this is a ‘historic’ storm and a combination of events which will accelerate the storm in its last stages into a sharp turn, and drive the central pressure below the 955 MB it was last night. Pressure difference means serious wind, and it is well possible it will come in not as a tropical storm but re-accelerated. Several things are exacerbating this: the energy in the nor’easter, the fact it’s a high tide, and the angle at which it will come in. Exacerbating the potential for damage: trees are still in full leaf, which, sail-like, increases the surface exposed to the wind, ergo the strain on the tree, and falling trees will bring down electric power. This is not only bigger than Irene, it’s got those several complicating factors which put this into territory the scientists say they haven’t seen before. Here’s a technical explanation from two days ago of WHY the cold of northern waters isn’t causing the storm to peter out: note that it’s already sunk below that record pressure cited in the article.Technicals on Sandy
Please, if you’re in that region, err on the side of caution.
The Capital Hill Weather Gang rocks. I always check them for complete information on weather events around here.
The two largest local school systems (Montgomery County MD and Fairfax County VA) have issued shutdown notices for Monday and Tuesday. They are the school districts whose schoolbuses would add to traffic problems the most on local roads. A couple of other school systems have ordered shutdowns for Monday.
It’s planetary science at its finest, on one hand; on the other, if it’s the fully-leafed old elm leaning over your living room, it’s going to be pretty scary. I forgot the third point of the trifecta on this one—it’s not just the energy bound in the nor’easter and the high tide cycle, but Sandy and the nor’easter are tying into the jet stream: this is where the scientific folk were tearing their hair out yesterday when the NYC mayor said no evacuations were planned. The likelihood is that with all that free energy, the hurricane will ‘spin up’ and temporarily gain force as it makes landfall.
In spite of worries for those in the path of the storm, I gotta love those geeky meteorologists that are glues to their instruments and simulations. We had a couple on TV here a few years ago watching a severe storm. The news person kept pulling them back so they could issue local warnings when needed. I could hear the excitement in their voices, “Look at this!” “See when this happens…” I gotta love people who love their work.
Best wishes, and urges of caution, to those along the East Coast.
I was without power, internet, pretty much anything, for weeks after Hurricane Ike. Number one no good.
* If you don’t have a kerosene / oil lamp, the old-timey glass lamps with brass fittings and a wick, get at least one, and always be careful as with any candle or flame. They’re fairly cheap. If you need one, they’re well worth it. I’m about to check mine, just to be sure they’re in shape. (I’m along the Gulf Coast; thankfully not in Sandy’s path.)
* If you haven’t already, ~charge your cell phone, tablet, laptop, any computer gadgets.
— Expect that, before and after the hurricane hits, you may be unable to get through by cell phone, because everyone else is trying to call in or out, and towers may be compromised. — But then again, cell phone service may be fine while you have battery power, and while the power grid has power or gets it restored.
All the other usual precautions, such as refill prescriptions, get ready cash, stock up on non-perishables, potable water, first aid kit/supplies, etc., all apply. — If you haven’t already done so, *don’t* waste time in the hour or two before the storm hits. Either evacuate the frell out of there well beforehand, or get to shelter and hunker down. Along the coast, don’t be a hero — bug out while the gettin’s good.
Please be well, over there.
They’re closing the NYC subway system tonight. Jeff Masters is giving a 50% chance of it flooding. The seawall at the south end of Manhattan may not be high enough (Irene nearly topped it).
The NYSE actually thinks that *it* will be operating.
I was in NY one autumn when there was a hurricane and the subway got flooded .. in about 98 or so …
Yah, no such thing as global warming. Right.
Ohhh, and good luck everyone! Make sure you’re hanging on to something that isn’t going to blow away!
Just don’t take chances. At all. Oldfashioned reading by candlelight may be in order—and those of you not used to candles, not near drapes, not on a shelf under another shelf, watch your sleeves, and don’t leave a candle burning unattended: blow it out or take it with you.
You can also cast the light wider by putting a mirror behind it.
A simple expedient for reflecting candle or lamplight is a piece of aluminum foil. The foil should reflect some of the heat as well, especially the infrared radiation, adding a margin of safety to whatever’s behind the lamp. If you lose power, be sure not to open freezers at all, they should be able to hold frozen food for 2 or 3 days if unopened.
U.S. Office of Personnel Management has spoken: federal government offices in the National Capital Area will be closed tomorrow. (Emergency/vital personnel must still report; those with existing telecommuting arrangements are expected to telecommute as usual, for as long as they are able.)
They have a hurricane coming in. If there’s any chance it’ll reach that far inland, then “telecommuting” via computer only holds out so long as electricity and communications lines (cable, fiber, ISDN, whatever) are working.
If Sandy is like Ike or Katrina, then no, telecommuting won’t help, sorry. Cell phone service had to come back up as emergency and major business facilities were restored. Internet service to residential customers didn’t come back after Ike for over a month and a half, same as electricity.
It sounds like the folks back east, no offense intended, were not paying attention to what happened in two major U.S. cities after major hurricanes. Those who do not pay attention to history are doomed to repeat it.
And dang-all, be very careful with candles, kerosene or oil lamps, etc.
After Ike, I cooked on my grandmother’s gas stove by kerosene lamp. I learned to cook supper around 5:00 to 5:30 pm if I wanted light enough to see in the kitchen, even with that lamp. Very much like pioneer America or anywhere in the 1800’s, it gave me a bigger appreciation for life back then.
Because power and other services were down so long, there were curfews and martial law. This sounds dire. But in my experience, people cooperated, behaved themselves, and people didn’t get hurt. Things were surprisingly orderly. Mostly. Local police and national guard troops were both on duty. Including to make sure food, ice, and water, whether rations or once grocery stores were starting to operate4 (limited times) were going smoothly with no problems from crowds. People stood in line, behaved like civilized and friendly human beings, at least where I was. But yes, those ladies and gentlemen were authorized to arrest or to shoot, if someone made trouble. — All very, very surreal. But everywhere I saw, also safe, and people acted reasonably. Helicopter flyovers too (yes, military and police and emergency services, any or all the above.) — Like I said, surreal, but necessary. I’m still surprised things weren’t worse in that regard. It says a great deal about the everyday citizen (note the word) that people got together, helped each other, and got through it so well. It may also be because people here, anyone who’s lived here long enough, know what a hurricane is and what it can do.
If another like Ike ever heads my way, I’m getting the **** out of town, headed north and inland, for sure. Cats, two bags, computer, and me.
This, by way of saying — I hope folks stay safe, and from experience, I know people can get by better than you’d think. It won’t be easy, but it’s livable, 1800’s livable, but that’s OK. — So please take care of yourselves.
BlueCatShip, actually, power was out for us for about a week after Isabel, and we had the derecho this past summer, where we dodged the bullet (power out for 12 hours only) but my sister had a tree fall through her family room (fortunately, the bedroom wing of the house was spared). But while power lasts, the agencies need to have what *can* get done actually *get* done – the rest of the country will keep running as usual while we’re being pounded here. Part of the reason for shutting down the government is that it’s *the* employer in the area, and shutting it down gets a huge number of people off the roads.
We’re not on a body of water – we’re just north of DC and on a hill to boot. Our main problem is likely to be falling trees. But I’m fretting a bit about my mom-in-law and her husband: they live on a tributary of the Chesapeake. The wind is predicted to be coming from the wrong direction to make storm surges on the Western Shore of the Bay, though, and *they* have two generators and were telling us that we should come stay with them … .
When you’re playing tag with a planetary feature that can be seen from the Moon—yeah, that’s a good idea. 😉
Prepared 600 PM EDT – Sunday October 28, 2012 Gary Szatkowski
NOAA’s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ Forecast Office Weather.gov/phi
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
Please make sure to read Slide 12
Beaming good thoughts eastwards.
My cousin in central Massachusetts says both her and her husband’s work is cancelled tomorrow. They’re not even on the coast but expect strong storms. The bee hives are locked down so even if they do tip they’ll stay intact.
Sitting here in Maryland watching the weather channel trying to figure out what to expect tomorrow. We’re on a well, so we filled up a bathtub with water for toilet flushing, etc, and I’ve got 6 gallons of bottled water stashed for emergency purposes. I find the headlamp I got from REI a few years ago works great as a reading light; it uses 3 AAA batteries, the light is where I’m looking, and there’s no fire danger. We’re out of the city, so we will lose our lights – it’s just a question of how long the outage will last. Oh, and we found the one-burner propane hot plate so I will be able to make coffee tomorrow. The bad news is I usually grind the beans, so I’ll have to use my husband’s pre-ground vanilla flavored coffee. Not optimal for the first cup in the morning, but I’ll get by.
I grew up on the Texas Gulf Coast, so I’ve certainly seen my share of hurricanes. I’ve been in MD for 15 years, so I missed Ike and Rita (2005 storm overshadowed by Katrina). We’re away from the coast, so we’re safe from coastal flooding. The pine trees in MD do have a habit of falling over when the ground is soft from rain; fortunately we took out the last of those this year. Guess we’ll just hunker down and hope for the best.
Teegan, we have municipal water, but if the power to the filtering plant goes out, it won’t be drinkable. We’re on the top of a hill just north of DC, but we’re also surrounded by big, old trees (mostly oaks, but some maple and tulip poplar). Someone was observing that a lot of the local electrical infrastructure was re-done after the derecho – I’m hoping that makes at least *some* difference.
True, the municipal water systems need power too. It’s been so long since I had city water I hadn’t thought about it. It takes electricity to run the pumps to get the water into the standpipes too. Ironically, we live near the reservoir for Baltimore’s drinking water.
At least the maples have lost most of their leaves, which may help them withstand the wind. BGE was out trimming trees all summer, but on our road we’ve had 2 trees fall over since then. There’s one power line to our neighborhood from the nearest substation.
Too bad we didn’t get that generator we’re planning installed yet.
I am so glad Russ is back here now. He got a note from friends saying his place was in the mandatory evacuation area, and they’d been given only 2 hours to clear out. He didn’t have a car when he lived in New York.
I hope everyone does well. This looks worrisome. Russ has a lot of friends out there now (after living there for five years) and he’s worried about all of them.
At the moment, here on the north side of Boston, it’s a bit rainy but that’s about it. I spent about 5 hours today jumbling together much of the fall yard work out in the garden — planting bulbs, cleaning and bringing in the garden furniture, a bit of trimming (my spouse took down dead limbs from trees a couple of days ago) and other tasks.
Found out this evening that my organization in Boston is actually shutting down for the day, probably because both the state and the city have preemptively declared a state of emergency. Problem is, I have (well, now “had”) 80+ people coming for a training tomorrow. Now I’m wishing I had taken the time to make a master e-mail/phone list of all the folk so I could tell them. But, they will probably figure it out pretty well on their own… and a few are e-mailing me themselves.
If my college anthro class of Monday evening is cancelled, then I will have a surprise day to myself, sort of a serendipitous present if the power and weather don’t go haywire. I think I will use the time to work on my novel./
I’m used to tornadoes, as used to them as you ever get…they come on fast and they leave fast, so it’s a much shorter but quite intense experience—it can hit the neighbor next door and leave your house untouched. Or vice versa, and while the wind can hit 318 mph, it’s done in fifteen minutes. Hurricanes aren’t near as strong a wind, but they’re steady for a long, long, long time. and you have to think about them. I’ve seen a tornado flip up the whole roof structure of a house and set it back down quite accurately—with the sky blue draperies flipped outside and hanging on the brickwork. That fast, that crazy. I think I’d rather tornadoes, on the whole—hurricanes you just have to sit and watch come for days. I really hope everybody’s in their own safe place, well-supplied, and that the authorities listen to the weather-folk and issue good instructions. Lynn and Jane and I are all tracking this and thinking of you guys.
I agree with you about tornados; we live in tornado alley (I-44) and they generally get out of the area extremely quickly.
Take care, everybody!
Luckily, I’m in the middle of Europe. No floods, no earthquakes, nary a severe storm. Just an early start for winter: Temperatures a little below freezing, some snow, and people in the queue at the garages to get their winter tires 🙂
Relatives in Jersey are as prepped as they can be, so we’re just hoping this is a ‘tale of sound and fury, signifying nothing’, or at least very little. Please, everyone, do what you can and need to remain safe. We had a tsunami scare yesterday that fortunately turned out to be ‘only a test’, and one hopes this is equivalent.
I’m clear out here on the west coast, but parents and one sib and his family are all in the central Mass – southern NH area. I’ve got my fingers crossed the trees all behave themselves – we had a family adventure involving a pine tree, an ice storm, and a rental car a few years back that makes us all a bit concerned about trees. Mom reported the trees have mostly dropped leaves or are busily dropping them, so…
Crossed fingers for everyone in the path!